Election Predictions (Not So Bold Edition)
Now that I've gotten my endorsement out of the way, it's time for some rather, er, conventional predictions. Check back this time tomorrow to see how accurate they are.
1. Obama will win all of the Kerry states plus Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, Florida, Ohio, and in a surprise, North Carolina (by a whisker)
2. McCain will eek out victories in Missouri and Indiana
3. Democrats will not lose any incumbent Senate seats, and will gain in Colorado, Virginia, New Mexico, North Carolina, Alaska, and New Hampshire. Norm Coleman will be re-elected in Minnesota, due to the presence of third-party candidate Dean Barkley. Republicans will keep Mississippi, Georgia, and Kentucky rather handily
4. Democrats will gain 25 seats in the house and have an 89 seat majority.
5. Joseph Lieberman will be stripped of his leadership position in the Senate and caucus with the Republicans, thus giving Democrats an effective 56-44 majority.
Final score- Obama 353- McCain 185
A Skeptical Note
We liberal Americans of Kunming are getting mighty excited about the election, given that everyone and his mother expects Barack Obama to win. A good friend of mine, John, wasn't so sure. He's in his 60s and has lived abroad much of the last 40 years after growing up in Georgia and North Carolina. To talk to John is a pleasure; he's had such an interesting life, and always has a thoughtful perspective on just about any subject under the sun. He alone was skeptical about Obama, and made a apocraphyl comment about the election.
"Man, I just don't know. I bet there are going to be a lot of people who intend to vote for Barack Obama that will change their mind the second they walk into that booth. They'll see his weird name next to McCain's, and while they're not gonna know why, they'll just be unable to pull the trigger."
He went on: "I used to know a lot of black guys who went up North after growing up in the South. They'd all say that the racism was worse in the North, which surprised me. The reason why, they said, was that in the South you knew people were racist. It was plain and open and you could incorporate it into your life. In the North, people swore they weren't racists, but deep down, they were- and that was more difficult to deal with."
The Two Kunmings
A friend of mine recently told me that, if the US presidential election were decided amongst American expats in Kunming, Obama would win by about a 10 to 1 margin. I thought about it for a minute, and then disagreed. "You're forgetting the people on the other side of town," I said.
Unlike cities like Shanghai or Shenzhen, there are very few foreign businessmen on fixed contracts living here. Most of the foreigners can be broadly divided into two camps: the Christians and the Bacchanalians.
I, it goes without saying, am firmly planted in the latter camp. This has little to do with my actual religious beliefs (I'm an atheist, for the record) but more to do with my lifestyle. The foreigners whom I know and see regularly typically hang out in one neighborhood, filled with restaurants, cafes, and bars. Most are single, though some are married. None have small children. Most are between 20 and 40, though there are some in their 50s and 60s. Most drink, some heavily. Many smoke. Some do hard drugs, others don't. Most enjoy smoking cannabis. Most are left-wing. Few are religious. Most are well-traveled, well-read, and sociable conversationalists. Some are obnoxious and disagreeable.
Many of the expats I know seldom stray far from this scene. Several live, work, and play within a 2-mile radius of Yunnan University and venture out only on special occasions. These are the Bacchanalians.
Yet there's another tribe, if you will, that also lives in the city. Most of these people inhabit the more modern apartment complexes in the city's northern end, or around the western part of the second ring road. I would guess that the median age would be about the same as in the Bacchanalian tribe, but most in the Christian camp are married with children. Life is centered around church, and a couple of cafes/restaurants in their neighborhood. Unlike the hangouts around YunDa, these watering holes do not serve alcohol and prohibit smoking. While the Christian types work and study with the Bacchanalians, they tend to keep their distance from us. They are mainly conservative politically, temperate, and non-smokers.
When I first arrived in Kunming I wanted to do an investigation of the Christian community, as many of them are quietly (and illegally) missionaries. The ones I met were polite but extremely cautious; they understood that they had to shield their religious activity somewhat from authorities. The writing project got nowhere, perhaps because they could smell my skepticism of their life choice. One of the challenges of being a journalist is covering a story in which one feels a strong emotional pull. I believe that moving to a foreign country to spread religion is deeply wrong. It disgusts me that people think that the Chinese to whom they proselytize are somehow in need of spiritual salvation. What arrogance!
That, I suppose, is what keeps the two camps so far apart. And with an election on the horizon, this sort of tribalism will be evident.
Notes and Thoughts
Yikes...an e-mail from my sister reminded me that I've been silent in this space for a bit longer than usual. Apologies! Work has been busy and I've been occupied by other things, but keeping fresh content on this site remains a priority to stay tuned.
Before I write about my trip (I've got a bit more research to do still- bear with me), I'll share a few news and notes for my remaining faithful
- A couple people I know in Kunming have expressed the conventional wisdom that the Colin Powell endorsement is really bad news for McCain. I'm not so sure. Do people really pay attention to endorsements? And for that matter, do people really pay attention to Powell?
- Certain Republicans believe Sarah Palin is the second coming of St. Ronald of Reagan, which to me sounds more like wishful thinking on their part than anything else. "There were doubts about Reagan's experience too!" they cry. Were they? This is before my time (I was safely inside my mother's womb when the Gipper first assumed office), but Reagan was a major figure within the Republican Party for at least a decade and a half prior to the 1980 election. Palin was plucked from almost total obscurity. Four years before he bested Carter, Reagan led an insurgency in the 1976 GOP primary that nearly knocked off sitting President Gerald Ford. Four years ago, Palin was the mayor of an Alaskan town smaller than the average Kunming housing complex.
You can fault Reagan for a lot of things (and believe me, I do) but he was at least a plausible choice on a national ticket. Palin, alas, is not.
- The presidential race appears to be tightening and will likely continue to do so. Then again, Obama must be pleased that McCain is pinning his presidential hopes on Pennsylvania, where he trails by a dozen points. To my pessimist friends (and father)- remember that Obama is
a) ahead in the polls
b) way ahead in cash-on-hand and
c) has a much better ground organization than McCain
- Interesting things are happening in China now on the economic front. Housing prices have begun falling. The government is worried about slower-than-expected GDP growth. They've also announced that by 2020, all Chinese will have nationalized health care. Will the US have that by then? Don't hold your breath.
- I just finished reading Paul Theroux's newest travel piece, Ghost Train to the Eastern Star, in which Theroux retraces the route undertaken in his first travel book, The Great Railway Bazaar. When the latter book was published, Theroux was a struggling writer in his early thirties with a crumbling marriage and two small children. Now, revisiting these places in his mid-sixties, he is happily remarried and financially secure.
Along with Theroux, the land and people have changed too; return visits to Iran, Afghanistan, and Pakistan were ruled out, while Vietnam has been transformed from a war zone into a thriving and peaceful nation. Theroux visits a few new places; the oil boomtown of Baku, Azerbaijan, the bizarre totalitarianist hell of Turkmenistan, and the ruins (both ancient and modern) of Cambodia.
His observations, while trenchant, betray a fundamental bias against places undergoing major economic change. He finds India's status as the world's call center an affront to the ancient land's charm, while simultaneously praising war-torn Sri Lanka for its desultory sameness. In Kunming, Theroux spares only a few paragraphs to my adopted home, revealing his evident disgust that the Chinese revel in newfound prosperity.
These criticisms aside, there are many wonderful parts of Ghost Train. I loved his pithy description of the uptight Singaporeans, as well as his wonderment at visiting magnificent Istanbul and meeting the great Turkish writer Orhan Pamuk. Some critics resent Theroux's use of visits with fellow literati in his works, but I find these to be quite charming. In addition to Pamuk, Theroux sees the late Arthur C. Clarke in Sri Lanka and both Murakami and the travel writer Pico Iyer in Japan.
All things aside, Theroux's fluid writing style and observant eye are evident throughout, and I recommend the book to anyone keen to lose themselves on the vast Eurasian landmass.
OK...time for sleep as I have made the masochistic decision to wake up in six hours to go swimming. Ahoy!
Town Hall Debate
I'm watching the town hall debate between McCain and Obama right now on the New York Times, though my curiously fluctuating internet connection has made this experience more frustrating than it ought to be. With five minutes left and my internet pretty much kaput, I'll make it as much of an informed comment as possible.
Both candidates predictably used the debate to rephrase and expound upon their campaign stump speeches. If this meant ignoring or sidestepping audience questions, then so be it. I can't blame either candidate for this, as a format that discourages candidates from exceeding 90 seconds in their responses doesn't allow for much thoughtful conversation. Or any conversation, at all. The most frustrating moment that I saw was when moderator Tom Brokaw admonished the candidates for actually engaging each other in a back-and-forth rather than sticking to the colored lights that indicate time.
Obama didn't stumble during this debate, and at first blush I would say that he acquitted himself rather well. My favorite Obama line: "countries in economic decline have never, in history, maintained military superiority". From a political standpoint, his blunt declaration that he will kill Osama Bin Laden and "crush" al-Qaeda was unusually bold for a Democrat.
McCain didn't stumble, either, and he wisely allowed his sense of humor to shine through. On matters of substance, he really tried to position himself again as a maverick Republican, repeatedly stressing his deviations from Bush-Cheney policy and reminding voters that he hasn't always been very "popular". However, McCain failed to win this debate decisively, which is what he had to do in order to change the momentum of the race.
Also, I don't think the townhall format did the aging Senator much of a service. When approaching voters, he appeared hunched-over and doddering, in sharp contrast to the tall and graceful-seeming Obama. His poor posture, pale skin, thinning white hair, and reedy speaking voice are all drawbacks, particularly on a subconscious level. The last two septuagenarian presidential candidates, Bob Dole and Ronald Reagan, were robust and youthful-looking for their age. McCain isn't.
In any event, let me re-state my caveat; I didn't watch the entire debate, so I could have missed something quite relevant. However, my gut reaction is that this debate won't change the election dynamic. Good news for Obama.
UPDATE: Having watched more video clips and read more analysis of the debate, I believe the exchange between Obama and McCain over Iran and Pakistan was very deftly handled by Obama. McCain, known as a hawk, oddly criticized Obama for his mildly bellicose comments regarding Pakistan. He cited his political hero, Theodore Roosevelt, and admonished Obama for not "speaking softly and carrying a big stick". Obama instantly turned these words against McCain, citing the latter's embarrassing "Bomb bomb bomb Iran" comment as well as serious statements regarding North Korea and Iraq. McCain, sitting on his stool, looked chastened and mustered only an uneasy smile. A good moment for Obama.
Election Update
Some thoughts about the election:
1. The Biden/Palin debate seemed to end in a draw, which is both good and bad news for John McCain. The good news is that the "Palin is an unmitigated disaster" story will likely run out of legs as she wasn't nearly as bad as anyone expected. The bad news is that, as McCain is trailing, any major event that doesn't change the status quo does nothing to help him.
2. It appears that the final-stretch strategies for each campaign are now in place. Obama will continue focusing on the economy, as the dire financial situation in recent weeks has been a boon to his poll numbers. McCain has decided to direct his attacks to Obama's character and otherness, particularly in his dealings with various sketchy characters in Chicago.
McCain really doesn't have much of a choice, as the clock is running out and he's fallen behind. However, I don't understand why his campaign telegraphs his strategy so transparently. Instead of quietly pulling resources out of Michigan, McCain angered both the state Republican Party and his own running mate by making a public announcement. Rather than quietly launching personal attacks on Obama, McCain explicitly said he will do so, giving Obama's campaign ample opportunity to fight back.
In 2004, John Kerry's campaign was largely doomed by the Swift Boat Attacks, that is, a group of Bush supporting Vietnam veterans who launched an advertising campaign attacking Kerry's service in Vietnam. Caught blindsided, Kerry failed to respond and the story lingered in the press far longer than it should have. The attacks worked simply because they were so unexpected; the Kerry campaign assumed his service in Vietnam was a sacred cow and that Bush wouldn't dare challenge it.
McCain's inability to move quietly has to be seen as a godsend to Obama, who can fight back while simultaneously pushing his own message. I watched a new Obama spot calling McCain "erratic in a crisis", which is a damaging claim against a candidate whose biggest strength was in being the less risky choice for president.
3. Polling numbers look good for Obama. It appears unlikely that he will lose any of the states that Kerry won in 2004, though New Hampshire is famously unpredictable and could swing toward McCain. However, both Iowa and New Mexico seem like sure bets for Obama, and in addition to those two he simply needs to win one more of the following group: Colorado, Virginia, Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, and Indiana. The latter two are typically shoo-ins for Republicans, but recent polling suggests Obama is either tied or only slightly behind. Obama also has statistically significant leads in the former four states, though all are still close and must be considered toss-ups.
4. What's left on the schedule? Two more presidential debates, one a town-hall style discourse and the other focusing on domestic policy (read: economy). Four more weeks of heavy campaigning by both sides, focusing entirely on swing states. At the moment, McCain has to change the current electoral dynamic and tighten up the eight-point gap between him and Obama. His best hopes are that the financial/economic crisis fades off of the front page, a foreign policy crisis suddenly emerges between now and election day, his attacks on Obama are successful, or Obama commits a major gaffe. Obama simply needs to hope the status quo continues for the next month and run out the clock.
The Swiftly Aging President
Here is a photo of President Bush appearing on television to urge the House of Representatives to resolve the bailout legislation as quickly as possible. Bush is 62 years old, but here he looks north of 70. He also looks haggard and exhausted, undoubtedly due to dealing with the recent financial crisis. Still, though- wow. I'm surprised he hasn't started drinking again.
As a contrast, below is a photo of Bush when he was first elected president, in 2000. He was 54 years old.
Here is a recent photo of former president Bill Clinton, who is the exact same age as Bush.
And here are the two men together, taken (I presume) earlier this year
I wonder what a President Obama or President McCain will look like in eight years. Scary thought- in 8 years John McCain will be 80 years old.
Debate and China
I didn't watch the debate (I might later if I can find a spare hour and a half and a decent feed) but have read enough reactions, spin, and prognostications to give me an impression of what happened. After all, in American politics, substance typically means very little during election season.
IR blogger Dan Drezner watched the debate and asked, rhetorically, which foreign policy topic was missing. The answer is China. Nary a word was spoken by either candidate about the Middle Kingdom, a startling omission when considering how important US/China relations are to world affairs.
There are two explanations for why China was ignored, one incidental and one important. First, the financial crisis dominated the first half of a debate meant to focus entirely on foreign policy, so the amount of time dedicated to world issues was truncated significantly. Perhaps had the debate lasted thirty minutes longer the subject would have swung around to China and East Asia.
Secondly, there simply isn't much breathing room between the two candidates' positions on China, just as there really hasn't been much in the past thirty-five odd years. Since Nixon's visit and the restoration of Sino-US relations in the 1970s, there has generally been a broad consensus across the mainstream political spectrum about China. Both Republicans and Democrats tacitly acknowledge the "One China" policy while still protecting Taiwan. Both parties favor economic engagement, though both also lapse into populist rhetoric on occasion and denounce outsourcing. Both admonish Beijing for human rights abuses, including liberal Democrats like Nancy Pelosi and conservative Republicans like George W. Bush. Both parties agree that China should apply more pressure on various rogue nations, though neither party knows how to go about persuading them.
Barack Obama and John McCain have extremely divergent views on Iraq, Afghanistan, India/Pakistan, the Middle East, Israel, and just about every other important foreign policy consideration within the American purview. Yet on China, the two don't have much to discuss, which is ultimately why China is typically omitted in foreign policy debates.
Arnold Schwarzenegger
I woke up too late to watch the Presidential debate live, but I turned on my local National Public Radio affiliate (KQED) to see if I could catch a bit of post-debate spin. Instead, I've been listening to an hour-long interview with Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger at the Commonwealth Club. The interview has focused mainly on the environment, transportation, infrastructure, and pollution, with very little about politics. Schwarzenegger is articulate, funny, and well-informed. I don't agree with him on everything, but he's very credible.
Since I moved to China, I've taken a fair amount of grief from foreigners and other Americans for having Schwarzenegger be the governor of my state. People are typically stunned when I say that he's the only Republican I've voted for in my life, and that I generally think he's doing a good job. If there's anyone to be embarrassed about, it isn't him; it's Bush and McCain.
Best Thing I’ve Read Today…
...was an aside in a Nicholas Kristof column discussing the alarming number of Americans who believe Obama is a Muslim, or possibly Satan. Writes Kristof:
Just imagine for a moment if it were the black candidate in this election, rather than the white candidate, who was born in Central America, was an indifferent churchgoer, had graduated near the bottom of his university class, had dumped his first wife, had regularly displayed an explosive and profane temper, and had referred to the Pakistani-Iraqi border ...
That candidate, almost certainly, wouldn't have made it as far as Obama.