China and Democratization
The Economist has a long and interesting post mulling over why China remains an undemocratic country. The whole piece is worth a read, but particularly thought-provoking is the contention that China and Vietnam may have stumbled upon a sort of "sustainable authoritarianism"; that is, one without nepotism, regular succession, and regular economic growth.
A few extra things worth considering about China:
- The Chinese government runs a very effective propaganda apparatus that inculcates the idea that China's success is due to the Party's leadership and that democratic countries are susceptible to political and economic instability.
- The vast majority of Chinese people receive no formal education beyond the Party-implemented state system, never travel abroad, or ever encounter independent media in their lives. Thus, their exposure to ideas beyond the Party's control is minimal.
- China isn't capitalist in the same way traditionally capitalist societies are; state control over the economy remains common, and no Chinese succeed in business without the acquiescence, support, and (often) co-optation of key government officials.
- For some reason, the Chinese largely believe that government corruption is due to a "few bad apples" in the Party hierarchy rather than intrinsic to the system of government itself. The majority of the population hasn't yet made that conceptual link between "local Party official A is a corrupt criminal" and "he's corrupt because of perverse incentives and a lack of accountability"
As the piece points out, the Chinese and Vietnamese models can't be exported; the Communist Parties in those countries retain legitimacy through their role in unifying and stabilizing their countries after an extended period of war and chaos.
But the example of Egypt is worth remembering. Nobody I know of thought in late 2010 that within a few months the Mubarak regime would be thrown out of office in a revolutionary uprising. It wouldn't surprise me if people spoke of the CCP's resilience right up until the moment it collapses.
