The Tragedy of North Korea
National Geographic has a haunting article- complete with several photographs- describing the plight of North Korean refugees who risk their lives crossing across China and Laos into Thailand, where they can safely apply for asylum. The latter two countries have a policy of repatriating fleeing North Koreans, where they face certain imprisonment and the possibility of death on the charge of treason.
In this case, the refugees traveled by train from Beijing to Kunming before trekking across the Lao border by foot, an arduous process. The three tracked by the author successfully arrive in South Korea, where they encounter enormous difficulties finding decent work and assimilating into society. All are optimistic, though.
What to do about North Korea? The answer: economic engagement. A war would be catastrophic given the North's possession of nuclear weapons. Collapse could cause a major refugee problem and economic disaster for both South Korea and China.
The only real solution to the North Korean problem is to prod the hermit kingdom into enacting China-style economic reforms. This process will take years, but will ultimately bear more fruit than continued isolation matched with idle threats of "regime change".
While we're waiting- read the story. Amazing.
February 13th, 2009 - 17:26
“China and Laos into Thailand, where they can safely apply for asylum. The latter two countries have a policy of repatriating fleeing North Koreans”
Confused. Certainly China, the former of the countries listed, listed as they are, has a policy of repatriation. I would assuem Laos, being the other “communist” state, would, too. But the way you have it, Laos and Thailand repatriate, while China doesn’t.
“A war would be catastrophic given the North’s possession of nuclear weapons.”
All wars are catastrophic. But considering the North has managed little more than a bunch of threats and chest-thumping backed up with one serious failure of a nuclear test, I’m not convinced they have any functioning nuclear weapon. Sure, they could manage a dirty bomb, but could they wipe Tokyo from the map? For now, I doubt it. (I was about to write Seoul instead of Tokyo, but why would they nuke Seoul when, judging by all I’ve read on the subject, within minutes of a declaration of war they could rain a purely conventional armageddon of artillery fire on Seoul, pretty much trashing the place before any infantry or armour got close to attempting the border).
I read the article some time ago, and as awful as it was, it’s not the worst I’ve read on the subject. But what can you do? I can’t see any way out of the situation that will not result in horrific suffering one way or the other for the North Korean people.
February 15th, 2009 - 02:07
My belief has always been that the best way to fight these kinds of regimes is to wait it out, until it eventually begins to liberalizes (i.e. PRC) or collapses altogether (USSR). Both seem to be both more effective, and have less side effects than any sort of military pressur or the like.