Matt Schiavenza From the Dragon to the Apple- A Sinophile Goes to New York

Election Update

Some thoughts about the election:

1. The Biden/Palin debate seemed to end in a draw, which is both good and bad news for John McCain. The good news is that the "Palin is an unmitigated disaster" story will likely run out of legs as she wasn't nearly as bad as anyone expected. The bad news is that, as McCain is trailing, any major event that doesn't change the status quo does nothing to help him.

2. It appears that the final-stretch strategies for each campaign are now in place. Obama will continue focusing on the economy, as the dire financial situation in recent weeks has been a boon to his poll numbers. McCain has decided to direct his attacks to Obama's character and otherness, particularly in his dealings with various sketchy characters in Chicago.

McCain really doesn't have much of a choice, as the clock is running out and he's fallen behind. However, I don't understand why his campaign telegraphs his strategy so transparently. Instead of quietly pulling resources out of Michigan, McCain angered both the state Republican Party and his own running mate by making a public announcement. Rather than quietly launching personal attacks on Obama, McCain explicitly said he will do so, giving Obama's campaign ample opportunity to fight back.

In 2004, John Kerry's campaign was largely doomed by the Swift Boat Attacks, that is, a group of Bush supporting Vietnam veterans who launched an advertising campaign attacking Kerry's service in Vietnam. Caught blindsided, Kerry failed to respond and the story lingered in the press far longer than it should have. The attacks worked simply because they were so unexpected; the Kerry campaign assumed his service in Vietnam was a sacred cow and that Bush wouldn't dare challenge it.

McCain's inability to move quietly has to be seen as a godsend to Obama, who can fight back while simultaneously pushing his own message. I watched a new Obama spot calling McCain "erratic in a crisis", which is a damaging claim against a candidate whose biggest strength was in being the less risky choice for president.

3. Polling numbers look good for Obama. It appears unlikely that he will lose any of the states that Kerry won in 2004, though New Hampshire is famously unpredictable and could swing toward McCain. However, both Iowa and New Mexico seem like sure bets for Obama, and in addition to those two he simply needs to win one more of the following group: Colorado, Virginia, Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, and Indiana. The latter two are typically shoo-ins for Republicans, but recent polling suggests Obama is either tied or only slightly behind. Obama also has statistically significant leads in the former four states, though all are still close and must be considered toss-ups.

4. What's left on the schedule? Two more presidential debates, one a town-hall style discourse and the other focusing on domestic policy (read: economy). Four more weeks of heavy campaigning by both sides, focusing entirely on swing states. At the moment, McCain has to change the current electoral dynamic and tighten up the eight-point gap between him and Obama. His best hopes are that the financial/economic crisis fades off of the front page, a foreign policy crisis suddenly emerges between now and election day, his attacks on Obama are successful, or Obama commits a major gaffe. Obama simply needs to hope the status quo continues for the next month and run out the clock.