The Road to 538
This year, to quench my thirst for constant political news and updates, the website FiveThirtyEight has become my primary source. Nate Silver, who earlier in life created an accurate and valuable system of predicting baseball statistics, runs 10,000 simulations each day based on an aggregation of polling numbers. Here are some of his findings on the state of the race:
1. Obama is projected to win 347 electoral votes to McCain's 191.
2. Of the 10,000 electoral simulations, Obama wins 90%. This is his "winning percentage".
3. Obama is projected to win the popular vote, 51.9% to McCain's 46.5%. The remaining 1.6% will go to minor party candidates such as Libertarian Bob Barr.
4. The Democrats will earn a 58-42 lead in the Senate, assuming Joseph Lieberman continues to caucus with them. They will likely gain seats in Alaska, North Carolina, Oregon, New Hampshire, Colorado, New Mexico, and Virginia that are currently held by Republicans. To gain 60 seats, the Democrats must win in Minnesota (where comedian Al Franken is neck-and-neck with Senator Norm Coleman) and Mississippi (where ex-governor Ronnie Musgrove slightly trails Senator Roger Wicker). The odds of Democrats controlling 60 seats is currently about 20%.
5. McCain is unlikely to win any states that John Kerry carried in 2004. His best chance is in New Hampshire, where 538 gives him a winning percentage of 14%. Obama has a better than 50% chance to win the following Bush states: Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, Virginia, North Carolina, Indiana, Nevada, Ohio, Florida, and Missouri. In the former four, his odds increase to better than 80%. The candidates are closest in Indiana, Missouri, and North Carolina. True long shots for Obama are West Virginia, Georgia, and Montana.
Some caveats, before Obama voters get too excited. Three things could tighten the polls:
1. A major foreign policy event, particularly one involving terrorism, in which McCain shows leadership.
2. The "Bradley effect". That is, voters may tell pollsters that they support Obama, but will actually vote for McCain due to racial reasons.
3. The natural tightening of polls as election day approaches. This happened in both 2000 and 2004.
Let's be frank. McCain is in deep trouble, as Nate says.
October 10th, 2008 - 22:50
I heard about fivethiryeight while watching the Colbert Report earlier this week. Thank god for it! I was getting tired of looking at CNN and then trying to compare it with others. I think Nate’s approach is awesome! DO you think this Ayers thing will stick though? I thought we had been there done that in the primaries, but the way Palin keeps it up – sometimes that constant hammering is effective.