I admittedly know very little about finance, hence my bleg from the other day. What I do know about, though, is American politics. It appears that Obama has gained a little momentum in recent days, presumably directly related to the Wall Street meltdown.
Momentum is extremely, extremely important in American politics. John McCain’s selection of Sarah Palin as his running mate, followed by her subsequent speech at the Republican National Convention, gave the Arizona Senator momentum for the first time in this race. Palin became an instant media superstar, the red-meat Republican base was fired up, and Obama was left on his heels.
Generally, bad economic news favors the political party that’s out of power. Bill Clinton defeated George H W Bush in 1992 for this reason, even though the latter had presided over the collapse of the Soviet Union and the popular Persian Gulf War. No matter how much responsibility the current president has over the Wall Street crisis (and again, I don’t know enough to comment), he will be blamed. Democrats tend to hold more popular positions on economic matters anyway, and Obama will surely exploit this in coming days.
But more importantly, Palin is no longer a front-page story. The “political superstar” meme has been replaced by the “just another politician unable to explain what is happening,” one. And given Palin’s light experience on these matters, she’s far more likely to emit a gaffe-worthy comment than McCain, Obama, or Biden. I suspect McCain’s advisors will try to keep her off-the-cuff interactions with the media to a minimum over the next week or so.
One analyst I read believes that the race has returned to its pre-convention balance, with Obama two or three points ahead. I’d say it’s likelier that the race is pretty much exactly tied, and that McCain’s modest lead has probably evaporated. Again, with six weeks to go state polls are more important than national ones.
My guess- the polls will remain even until the debates, when the balance will shift again. In whose direction none can foresee. But it is difficult to make an accurate prediction until the debates are over.
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