General Election Thoughts
There are countless ways to analyze the general election, but before the campaign gets into full swing I'm going to cite a highly unscientific basis for being optimistic: my instincts.
In 2004, even though I dearly wanted to see George W. Bush booted from office, I always knew that he'd be re-elected, up until election day when the pollster John Zogby infamously predicted a wide John Kerry victory. I had a strong feeling that despite Kerry's qualifications and general decency, very few people felt strongly about him. Democrats nominated him for the sole reason that his resume made him ideally suited for defeating the hated Bush. Very few, I suspect, supported Kerry because they really wanted him to be president.
Meanwhile, a great deal of Republicans loved Bush and wanted him re-elected, and they had passion on their side. They thought W was a great President unfairly maligned by the liberal media and by unpatriotic Democrats. They also thought (with some justification) that Democrats were primarily motivated by their hatred for Bush, not by the desire to see the lanky Massachusetts senator in the oval office. For this reason, I just couldn't imagine Bush losing, and he didn't.
Fast-forward four years. The climate in this election is far different. Barack Obama's popularity derives not from Bush-hatred but by a genuine desire to see him elected President. Meanwhile, quite a few Republicans are ambivalent about John McCain. Fiscal conservatives hate his support for campaign-finance reform. Social conservatives doubt his Christianist bona-fides. Republicans wary of the Iraq War and foreign entanglements blanch at his fervent hawkishness. In many ways, McCain draws unfavorable comparisons to Bob Dole, the former senator from Kansas whom Bill Clinton defeated in the 1996 election. Both men are old, widely respected, but seen as somewhat feeble. McCain looks his age and moves gingerly, an unfortunate side-effect from his harrowing experience in a North Vietnamese prison camp. He doesn't speak well, and his penchant for intemperate remarks may cause him trouble under the extreme scrutiny of the media.
Obama is young, articulate, well-spoken, and energetic. He has dealt with his scandals very effectively, not allowing them to fester as Kerry did with the Swift Boat attacks in '04. His supporters (me included) feel strongly about him, and want him to win because we want him to be president. As the general election campaign continues, I believe the contrast between the inspiring Obama and the affable but somewhat lame McCain will become stark.
One nagging problem: in the comments to a post below, "FOB" writes that he supported Clinton, dislikes Obama, and will now be voting for McCain. This dynamic befuddles me. On policy terms, there is comparatively little difference between the two Democrats. Both would govern very differently from John McCain, or George W. Bush for that matter. If one's support for Clinton was based on gender issues, how would a President McCain be more progressive than a President Obama in this area? If one supported Clinton on economic populist grounds, how would a supply-side conservative be a better choice than a conventional liberal? If one supported Clinton based on dubious claims of electability, where's the evidence that she would perform better than Obama in the general election?
There is, of course, the race factor. Many Americans- Democrats included- feel uncomfortable with the idea of a black president. This is sickeningly ignorant, of course, but it does at least represent a plausible reason to support McCain over Obama.
Nevertheless, I still feel optimistic that Obama will win, and that with large Democratic majorities in the House and Senate he would have a chance to pass legislation that I support. A lot can happen between now and November, but I enjoy not having the same feeling of doom and gloom that plagued me four years ago.
The Pragmatic Marriage
A dear friend of mine meets me twice a week for language exchanges. For the most part, we focus on reading and speaking our respective target languages, choosing texts too interesting for the average language lesson. At the end of our exchanges, which last two hours, we often will have a drink and a chat.
A few months ago, she acquired a new boyfriend, a very nice Chinese guy who lives in my neighborhood. "How's it going?", I asked. "Very well!" she replied enthusiastically. She then said that there was a chance the two could someday get married. "Really? You must really love him,"
She furrowed her brow and spoke carefully. "No, I'm not sure. I don't even think I'm over my ex-boyfriend. But I really want to start a family. You know, it would mean a lot to my parents."
She and her ex-boyfriend were together for four years after meeting in university. One day last year, he told her that he had fallen in love with another woman and that he wanted out of their relationship. She was broken-hearted, feeling alone and unwanted.
As she said, she had lingering feelings for him, as theirs had been a passionate relationship. Her new boyfriend by all accounts is decent, and seems crazy about her. She, for now, seems happy to continue the relationship despite doubts that she truly loved him.
Most Chinese people in their twenties face extreme pressure to marry. Part of this pressure derives from a cultural sense of filial piety. Being married and having children pleases one's parents. Not doing so arouses suspicion, or worse.
Compounding this pressure is the fact that the vast majority of Chinese under the age of 28 are only children. The continuation of the family lineage depends entirely upon them. There are no siblings to pick up the slack.
Practical considerations in marriage exist everywhere in the world, as couples with unstable financial situations or diverging lifestyle choices rarely pull the trigger. Yet what interested me about my language partner was her willingness to sacrifice her own happiness- by remaining in a passion-less marriage- in order to please her parents.
I can't say whether or not such sacrifices are prevalent in modern China, but one's sense of family duty does seem greater than in the West.
Spamalot
Just a quick note about spam. Recently, the amount of spam comments this blog has received has gotten out of control. Every day, I sift through literally 500 comments selling me porn, pharmaceuticals, and various other goods that I don't want. I must admit that I usually don't scroll through my comments very carefully, as it would take so long. As a result, there's a chance that I've accidentally marked legitimate comments as spam, so if you have left a comment here that didn't appear on the main page, please let me know and I'll try to rectify the situation.
Torch Tales
Deepest apologies, dear readers: I had a great day planned of photographic the Olympic torch as it wound its way through central Kunming. I had received a tip that the torch would pass near my neighborhood at 10 am and that a lot of people would be out cheering and taking photos. Alas, the tip proved to be erroneous. At the last minute, the torch organizers decided to restrict the route to the outside of the city, past the World Horticultural Garden and the Minorities Village. I called a friend who had gotten there early and had informed me that all of the buses were canceled (god knows why) and that taxis were chock-full, too. So I didn't make it.
Anyway, the torch winds its way up north to Lijiang and Zhongdian (Shangri-La) this evening, so the opportunity has passed. Fortunately, I've actually seen the Olympic torch before, in 1996, when it passed through the Bay Area on its way to Atlanta. I don't feel quite so bad then.
It’s Over
Well, for all intents and purposes it has been over for the past few months, but now we can officially declare that Barack Obama will be the Democratic nominee for President.
My mood? Pleased.
The Taxi Driver
I spot the row of taxis lined up on my street and climb into one. The driver sits, smoking a cigarette and reading the Yunnan Daily News. He looks at me and I tell him where I want to go, and without a word he sets off and starts the meter.
Occasionally, taxi conversations are silent, but sometimes the drivers like to talk. I can usually predict which questions they ask, and I can reply in my sleep. In taxi Chinese, I am fluent.
We hit a red light and sit in the back of a long row of cars. He switches off his engine, in frugal Chinese style. He looks over and fires off the first question.
"ä½ æ˜¯å“ªä¸ªå›½å®¶çš„?"
(Which nationality are you?)
"American"
"Oooh! America! Good place!"
"Thank you"
So then I talked about mountains and national parks and rivers and great cities. He wanted to hear about salaries and housing costs and economic development. Some of the questions he asked were unanswerable.
"How much does a taxi driver make per month in America?"
"I don't know"
"How much does an apartment cost there?"
"It depends"
"Is it hot or cold there?"
"It's a big country, like China. Some parts are warmer than others".
And then, the truly tricky question.
"Which place do you think is better. America or China?"
I used to be flummoxed by this line of inquiry, as I was loath to say anything negative about China. But any Chinese person respects a patriot. So I said:
"Well, as an American of course I think my home country is better. But I love China, too"
This response elicited a chuckle, and before he could ask any more questions we had arrived at my destination.
Taxi drivers, I find, provide a more authentic window into Chinese thinking than virtually any other group of people. A lot of Chinese speak cautiously with foreigners, careful not to lend a false impression. Taxi drivers on the other hand have little to lose. They spend their lives engaging in temporary conversation without repercussions, so an impolitic comment will be forgotten as soon as the fare steps out of the car.
Since arriving in Kunming, I estimate that I have taken over a thousand separate taxi trips. Not once have I remembered having the same driver twice. Yet the odds are that I have. It is their very anonymity, then, that makes taxi drivers such interesting vessels of information.