Matt Schiavenza From the Dragon to the Apple- A Sinophile in New York

General Election Thoughts

There are countless ways to analyze the general election, but before the campaign gets into full swing I'm going to cite a highly unscientific basis for being optimistic: my instincts.

In 2004, even though I dearly wanted to see George W. Bush booted from office, I always knew that he'd be re-elected, up until election day when the pollster John Zogby infamously predicted a wide John Kerry victory. I had a strong feeling that despite Kerry's qualifications and general decency, very few people felt strongly about him. Democrats nominated him for the sole reason that his resume made him ideally suited for defeating the hated Bush. Very few, I suspect, supported Kerry because they really wanted him to be president.

Meanwhile, a great deal of Republicans loved Bush and wanted him re-elected, and they had passion on their side. They thought W was a great President unfairly maligned by the liberal media and by unpatriotic Democrats. They also thought (with some justification) that Democrats were primarily motivated by their hatred for Bush, not by the desire to see the lanky Massachusetts senator in the oval office. For this reason, I just couldn't imagine Bush losing, and he didn't.

Fast-forward four years. The climate in this election is far different. Barack Obama's popularity derives not from Bush-hatred but by a genuine desire to see him elected President. Meanwhile, quite a few Republicans are ambivalent about John McCain. Fiscal conservatives hate his support for campaign-finance reform. Social conservatives doubt his Christianist bona-fides. Republicans wary of the Iraq War and foreign entanglements blanch at his fervent hawkishness. In many ways, McCain draws unfavorable comparisons to Bob Dole, the former senator from Kansas whom Bill Clinton defeated in the 1996 election. Both men are old, widely respected, but seen as somewhat feeble. McCain looks his age and moves gingerly, an unfortunate side-effect from his harrowing experience in a North Vietnamese prison camp. He doesn't speak well, and his penchant for intemperate remarks may cause him trouble under the extreme scrutiny of the media.

Obama is young, articulate, well-spoken, and energetic. He has dealt with his scandals very effectively, not allowing them to fester as Kerry did with the Swift Boat attacks in '04. His supporters (me included) feel strongly about him, and want him to win because we want him to be president. As the general election campaign continues, I believe the contrast between the inspiring Obama and the affable but somewhat lame McCain will become stark.

One nagging problem: in the comments to a post below, "FOB" writes that he supported Clinton, dislikes Obama, and will now be voting for McCain. This dynamic befuddles me. On policy terms, there is comparatively little difference between the two Democrats. Both would govern very differently from John McCain, or George W. Bush for that matter. If one's support for Clinton was based on gender issues, how would a President McCain be more progressive than a President Obama in this area? If one supported Clinton on economic populist grounds, how would a supply-side conservative be a better choice than a conventional liberal? If one supported Clinton based on dubious claims of electability, where's the evidence that she would perform better than Obama in the general election?

There is, of course, the race factor. Many Americans- Democrats included- feel uncomfortable with the idea of a black president. This is sickeningly ignorant, of course, but it does at least represent a plausible reason to support McCain over Obama.

Nevertheless, I still feel optimistic that Obama will win, and that with large Democratic majorities in the House and Senate he would have a chance to pass legislation that I support. A lot can happen between now and November, but I enjoy not having the same feeling of doom and gloom that plagued me four years ago.