The China Digital Times notes that New Year’s Day marked the 30th anniversary of official China-US relations. Prior to January 1, 1979, the United States recognized Taiwan’s Republic of China government as the official government of China.
Chinese president Hu Jintao noted the occasion with words of praise and calls for increased cooperation; I’m sure American leaders would share similar sentiments. After all, the policy has largely been successful, perhaps the most successful policy shift in post-war American history.
If anything, this year should be the 49th, rather than the 30th, anniversary of Sino-US ties. In 1960, Maoist China split from the USSR in a diplomatic row concerning many issues, one of which being Moscow’s refusal to help China construct a nuclear bomb. At the time, cementing ties with Beijing would have made eminent sense.
Alas, it would not happen until the next decade, when Nixon and Kissinger engineered a thaw with Mao and Zhou Enlai in 1972.
Two factors explain why. First, most experts on China (and Vietnam, notably) were purged from the US government during the 1950s McCarthy campaign due to suspected Communist ties. This meant that people making foreign policy decisions lacked expert advice, a fact that haunted both the Kennedy and Johnson administrations in Vietnam.
A second factor had to do with the US policy of lumping all Communist states together despite regional and circumstantial differences. China’s brand of Communism differed mightily with Russia’s, even when the two states got along. Also, the Communist movement in China was largely nationalist, as the competing Nationalist Party was riven by corruption and impotence against the occupying Japanese before and during the Second World War.
So in effect, the 1960s were a wasted decade in Sino-American relations. One wonders; had the US and the West brought China into broad international recognition, would China’s travails in the 1960s been avoided? The period of time between the Sino-Soviet split in 1960 and 1979 was extremely tumultuous for China, with the Great Leap Forward, Cultural Revolution, failed coup attempt by Lin Biao, death of Mao Zedong and Zhou Enlai, power struggle, rise of Deng Xiaoping, and the launch of economic reforms. Of course, these were tumultuous times in the West too but the comparison isn’t apt.
Anyway, it’s impossible to tell what would have happened. Let’s hope this degree of stability will last another thirty years and beyond.